Chapter 2. Pharmaceutical market forecasting

WinMedica · ELPEN · Pharmaceutical

Every pack in 77 countries, three years ahead: how it will move, and why.

Forecast file, 2026–20283 of 1.26 million rows

Molecule A 5 mg, 60 tabletsSpain Patent expires Jun 2026.Mar 2027. Generics enter and the originator’s price falls. Updated

Molecule B 1 mg penGermany Launched mid-2025, so the data holds only part of a year.

Molecule C 100 mg vialItaly Withdrawn by the company in March 2026, with the source recorded.

Fig. 2.1 Three rows of a forecast file, with illustrative figures. history forecast

Built for WinMedica and ELPEN on a licensed global sales panel: what each product will sell, where, and why.

Most market forecasts give you a number. This one gives the reason with it, so every figure can be checked, questioned and defended in front of your own management.

At a glance

Coverage: Every pack in 77 countries. Sales and units, 2021 to 2028, history and forecast on one row.
Drivers: Patent expiry and generic entryLaunchesWithdrawalsAnnounced pricesNational price rulesCompany guidance
Deliverable: The forecast itself, a reason on every row that moves, notes on single brands, and two short notes on the numbers and the method.
Raw materials: Your data and your domain expertise.

Quality

Tested blind: Tested on a year it had never seen, it came closer to actual sales than simply repeating the previous year’s figures, in value, in volume and for single brands.
Sourced: Every figure set by hand cites where it came from: company results, regulators, patent registers.
Cross-checked: How sales fall after a patent expires and rise after a launch was checked on national data from France and the United States.

The building process

Scope your markets, products and the decisions behind them
Build on your data
Hand-over of the forecast and the notes that explain it

Contact

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